Chartpunk

Nov 21, 2021

4 min read

Bitcoin Chartpunk Daily Alpha #55

Join me on the journey to a 250k+ Bitcoin price! We will definitely have some good and bad times on this bumpy road, but with good alpha we will be able to ride strong trends and avoid sharp losses. Being a trend trader, I am not promising to pinpoint exact highs and lows, but I hope my view will assist you in making your own decisions.

HTF Market Structure

Bitcoin HTF Market Structure 2021.11.21.

The high time frame chart is indicating an intact bull market since July 20. Price is trending upwards in the lower half of an ascending channel, and due to the correction since November 10, the 1-day stochastic RSI has just crossed up in oversold territory. Key supports of the current bull market are the prior swing high at 53000, the trendline at 53000, and the July 20 AVWAP level of 50200. Price action has been struggling around the September 29 AVWAP level of 58900, and the AVWAP level of the November 10 pullback is currently at 61400, these are the key resistances to tackle by the bulls at this time.

LTF Market Structure

Bitcoin LTF Market Structure 2021.11.21.

The low time frame chart is bearish. There is an intact downtrend since the November 10 all time high, with trendline currently at 62600, and AVWAP level of 61200. If we calculate the AVWAP from the November 15 trendline bounce, then we see another key level of 59500. These are the most important support s currently of the bears and short players. I consider shorting in a HTF bullish environment risky, but if you are into swing shorts, then these levels might be your reasonable entries.

Summary

While the high time frame Bitcoin market structure is bullish, the low time frame charts are still controlled by the bears. As long as the price action is under the 61500–62500 zone, the bears will remain in control in the short term. The 50000–53000 zone is the key support of the long time frame bull market.

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What is trend trading?

Trend trading is a market strategy that is reasonably different from swing trading or day-trading. A market “trend” is a tendency of a financial market price to move in a particular direction over time. Swing traders and day-traders are usually trying to pinpoint low-term market tops and bottoms, and take aggressive positions expecting to profit from a swift change of market direction. Trend traders are looking for consolidated and strong directions on a given market, and are trying to ride the trend for as long as possible. These traders normally enter in the market after the trend “properly” establishes itself. My core strategy in trend trading is to look for a market setup where the long time frame market structure is indicating a solid trend, and intact price action is supported properly by the low time frame charts.

What are my key indicators?

I am using trendlines, channels and moving averages to identify market structure and to spot trends. In crypto trading my core moving average indicators are the 50 and 128 daily moving averages. I am also using anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) analysis to identify support/resistance levels.

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Join the discussion!

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Disclaimer

The present article is a free material, for entertainment and educational purposes. Nothing in this post shall be considered as financial advice, you shall never make any financial decisions or financial investments based on a singly source of information and without doing your own research.