Chartpunk

Nov 18, 2021

4 min read

Bitcoin Chartpunk Daily Alpha #52

Join me on the journey to a 250k+ Bitcoin price! We will definitely have some good and bad times on this bumpy road, but with good alpha we will be able to ride strong trends and avoid sharp losses. Being a trend trader, I am not promising to pinpoint exact highs and lows, but I hope my view will assist you in making your own decisions.

Market Structure

Bitcoin HTF Market Structure 2021.11.18.

The Bitcoin high time frame chart is bullish. As we can see on the 3-day chart, the price has nicely held the 58800 AVWAP level of the September push, reinforcing it as support. The uptrend of July is intact with higher highs and higher lows, a trendline support at 53000 and AVWAP support at 50000. This 53000–50000 region is what I would expect to serve as the ultimate floor for the current corrective move. Notice how the Stochastic RSI on the 3-day chart is nearing the oversold territory. Historically the oversold StochRSI on the 3-day chart used to serve as a great entry for dollar cost averaging Bitcoin hodlers and investors.

Bitcoin LTF Market Structure 2021.11.18.

The low time frame Bitcoin chart is controlled by the bears. The descending trendline of the November 10 pullback is currently at 64800, and the AVWAP level of this move is currently at 62300. These are very important supports of the bears and short players. The 60800 AVWAP level of the November 15 downwards impulse is the immediate support of the bears. StochRSI is oversold currently on the 1-hour chart. The fact of long wicks at the bottoms of the candles under 60000 may indicate buyer pressure in this immediate sub-60k zone.

Predator Charts

Bitcoin 3-day Predator 2021.11.18.

The HTF Predator chart has flipped neutral from bullish. The indicator has started a bearish candle, but we are 2 days away from its close. Price is still above the ascending 20-period moving average level.

Bitcoin 1-day Predator 2021.11.18.

The 1-day Predator chart is bearish. Indicator is bearish and the price is under the 20-period moving average that started to descend.

Bitcoin 8-hour Predator 2021.11.18.

The LTF Predator chart is bearish. The indicator is red and the price is way under the 20-period moving average.

Summary

Bitcoin is still in a long term bullish HTF market structure, with immediate support at 58800, and an ultimate support zone of 53000–50000. As long as these levels hold, the long term bullish momentum will be intact. LTF charts however are controlled by the bears, and strong price action above 65000 would be necessary to enable an attack on the 66350 prior swing high. The StochRSI is approaching oversold territory on the 3-day chart which has served historically as a great entry point for long term DCA Bitcoin hodlers and investors.

Like the newsletter? Do not miss any Daily Alpha, follow Chartpunk on Facebook, Twitter, Telegram or Reddit!

What is trend trading?

Trend trading is a market strategy that is reasonably different from swing trading or day-trading. A market “trend” is a tendency of a financial market price to move in a particular direction over time. Swing traders and day-traders are usually trying to pinpoint low-term market tops and bottoms, and take aggressive positions expecting to profit from a swift change of market direction. Trend traders are looking for consolidated and strong directions on a given market, and are trying to ride the trend for as long as possible. These traders normally enter in the market after the trend “properly” establishes itself. My core strategy in trend trading is to look for a market setup where the 3-day chart is indicating a solid trend, and is supported properly by the 1-day and the 8-hour charts.

What is the indicator coloring my chart candles?

I am using the Predator indicator from Decentrader as my core trading tool, that is coloring my candles green-red-turquoise-orange, and is providing me basic information on the trend. I am also using the 20-period moving average and Fibonacci levels for the identification of supports and resistances.

Thanks for your clap :)

Did you know each Medium user can clap an article up to 50 times a day for free? If you want to show your support for my work, please consider clapping this article all 50 times! It helps a lot, and motivates me to write more!

Join the discussion!

My goal with this article to share a unique perspective on certain topics. I’d love to hear your thoughts or questions, so feel free to comment them below. Have a great day everyone!

Disclaimer

The present article is a free material, for entertainment and educational purposes. Nothing in this post shall be considered as financial advice, you shall never make any financial decisions or financial investments based on a singly source of information and without doing your own research.