Bitcoin Chartpunk Daily Alpha #48

Join me on the journey to a 250k+ Bitcoin price! We will definitely have some good and bad times on this bumpy road, but with good alpha we will be able to ride strong trends and avoid sharp losses. Being a trend trader, I am not promising to pinpoint exact highs and lows, but I hope my view will assist you in making your own decisions.

Market Structure

The high time frame Bitcoin market structure is bullish. The uptrend of July 22 is intact with higher highs and higher lows, its AVWAP level is currently at 49.5k. This level correlates to the Bull Market Support Band level, and also that of the 128-day moving average, so I consider this level as the ultimate support for the current bull run. AVWAP level of the latest push of September 29 is currently at 58.7k, providing us with an other reasonable support to the south. The short term downtrend that has started on October 20 has been tested multiple times as support in the previous days, along with its AVWAP value of 62.7k. Bulls should hope that this trendline and AVWAP support holds, especially as it also correlates to the 20-day moving average level. The StochRSI has not completely reset yet as oversold, but seems to have started crossing upwards, indicating a probable bullish momentum building.

On the low time frame Bitcoin market structure chart the price has bounced nicely from the downwards trendline of October 20, reinforcing it as support, along with the 62.1k AVWAP level of the uptrend started on October 12. The Stochastic RSI is getting overbought when trying to break the 65.1k resistance which in itself is not a good sign, as it indicates lack of general strength required to tackle the resistance.

Predator Charts

The LTF Predator chart is calling for caution. The indicator is about to print the first bearish close since the end of July. The price is however way above the nicely ascending 20-period moving average, so we can still consider the bullish momentum staying intact on this chart.

The daily Bitcoin Predator chart is neutral to bearish. The indicator has been clearly bearish now for a long time. The 20-period moving average is still ascending, and the bulls are fighting heavily to hold its level as support.

The LTF Bitcoin Predator chart is bearish. Indicator has been printing bearish candles, and the price is not able to climb back above the 20-period moving average. The only good sign here is that the 20MA line is still ascending.

Summary

No fundamental change since yesterday. The price of Bitcoin is still in a crossroad, and price action around the 62.5k and 65.5k levels should be watched very carefully. To maintain the immediate bullish momentum, Bitcoin should swiftly and confidently retake territory over the 65.5k. In this case the 67k-72k-81k targets will remain reasonable short term price targets. If Bitcoin is not able to beat the resistance, and loses the 62.5k level then the support of 58.6k could be the next station, and the immediate low time frame bullish momentum will be lost.

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What is trend trading?

Trend trading is a market strategy that is reasonably different from swing trading or day-trading. A market “trend” is a tendency of a financial market price to move in a particular direction over time. Swing traders and day-traders are usually trying to pinpoint low-term market tops and bottoms, and take aggressive positions expecting to profit from a swift change of market direction. Trend traders are looking for consolidated and strong directions on a given market, and are trying to ride the trend for as long as possible. These traders normally enter in the market after the trend “properly” establishes itself. My core strategy in trend trading is to look for a market setup where the 3-day chart is indicating a solid trend, and is supported properly by the 1-day and the 8-hour charts.

What is the indicator coloring my chart candles?

I am using the Predator indicator from Decentrader as my core trading tool, that is coloring my candles green-red-turquoise-orange, and is providing me basic information on the trend. I am also using the 20-period moving average and Fibonacci levels for the identification of supports and resistances.

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Join the discussion!

My goal with this article to share a unique perspective on certain topics. I’d love to hear your thoughts or questions, so feel free to comment them below. Have a great day everyone!

Disclaimer

The present article is a free material, for entertainment and educational purposes. Nothing in this post shall be considered as financial advice, you shall never make any financial decisions or financial investments based on a singly source of information and without doing your own research.

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Chartpunk

Trading and hodling bitcoin since 2015 I Focusing on longterm trends I No alpha for daytrades