Chartpunk

Nov 13, 2021

5 min read

Bitcoin Chartpunk Daily Alpha #47

Join me on the journey to a 250k+ Bitcoin price! We will definitely have some good and bad times on this bumpy road, but with good alpha we will be able to ride strong trends and avoid sharp losses. Being a trend trader, I am not promising to pinpoint exact highs and lows, but I hope my view will assist you in making your own decisions.

Market Structure

Bitcoin HTF Market Structure 2021.11.13.

The high time frame Bitcoin market structure is bullish. The uptrend of July 22 is intact with higher highs and higher lows, its AVWAP level is currently at 49.4k. This level correlates to the Bull Market Support Band level, and also that of the 128-day moving average, so I consider this level as the ultimate support for the current bull run. AVWAP level of the latest push of September 29 is currently at 58.6k, providing us with an other reasonable support to the south. The short term downtrend that has started on October 20 has been tested multiple times as support in the previous days, along with its AVWAP value of 63.7k. Bulls should hope that this trendline and AVWAP support holds, with the StochRSI continuing its way to oversold territory.

Bitcoin LTF Market Structure 2021.11.13.

The low time frame Bitcoin market structure is clearly showing the retest of the downtrend of October 20, and also the retest of the uptrend of October 12. To continue the immediate bull momentum, the price should confidently climb back above the 65.2k AVWAP level of November 6. The stochastic RSI has crossed up from oversold territory on the 4-hour chart, this might provide reinforcement to the attack on the 65.2k resistance. To the south it is very important to keep the 62k level as support.

Predator Charts

Bitcoin 3-day 2021.11.13.

The HTF Predator chart has changed for the first time since late October. Indicator has started to print a bearish candle, but we are still more than one day away from its close. Good sign it that the 20-period ascending moving average is way under the current price level. Bulls however do not want this chart to lose its consistent bullish structure that has been maintained for weeks now.

Bitcoin 1-day 2021.11.13.

The 1-day Bitcoin Predator chart is neutral. The indicator has been consistently bearish, but the price has been holding the ascending level of the 20-period moving average.

Bitcoin 8-hour 2021.11.13.

The LTF Bitcoin Predator chart is getting bearish. Indicator has flipped into bearish, and the price has lost the 20-period moving average level.

Summary

Bitcoin is slowly approaching a point where the market will have to decide about its imminent future, and we should closely follow the low time frame developments. As said at the high time frame market structure analysis, the ultimate support for the current bull market has been built up around 49–50k which is the level of the AVWAP of July 20, the 128DMA and the Bull Market Support Band. As long as we are above, my long term bullish view will be upheld. In the short term however to maintain the immediate bullish momentum, Bitcoin should swiftly and confidently retake territory over the 65.2–65.5k resistance level. In this case the 67k-72k-81k targets will remain reasonable short term price targets. If Bitcoin is not able to beat the resistance, and loses the 63.5-62.5k levels (AVWAP and 20DMA) then the support of 58.6k could be the next station, and the immediate low time frame bullish momentum will be lost.

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What is trend trading?

Trend trading is a market strategy that is reasonably different from swing trading or day-trading. A market “trend” is a tendency of a financial market price to move in a particular direction over time. Swing traders and day-traders are usually trying to pinpoint low-term market tops and bottoms, and take aggressive positions expecting to profit from a swift change of market direction. Trend traders are looking for consolidated and strong directions on a given market, and are trying to ride the trend for as long as possible. These traders normally enter in the market after the trend “properly” establishes itself. My core strategy in trend trading is to look for a market setup where the 3-day chart is indicating a solid trend, and is supported properly by the 1-day and the 8-hour charts.

What is the indicator coloring my chart candles?

I am using the Predator indicator from Decentrader as my core trading tool, that is coloring my candles green-red-turquoise-orange, and is providing me basic information on the trend. I am also using the 20-period moving average and Fibonacci levels for the identification of supports and resistances.

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Disclaimer

The present article is a free material, for entertainment and educational purposes. Nothing in this post shall be considered as financial advice, you shall never make any financial decisions or financial investments based on a singly source of information and without doing your own research.