Bitcoin Chartpunk Daily Alpha #45

Join me on the journey to a 250k+ Bitcoin price! We will definitely have some good and bad times on this bumpy road, but with good alpha we will be able to ride strong trends and avoid sharp losses. Being a trend trader, I am not promising to pinpoint exact highs and lows, but I hope my view will assist you in making your own decisions.

Market Structure

Bitcoin HTF Market Strcuture 2021.11.11.

The high time frame Bitcoin market structure is bullish. Higher highs and higher lows are printed. A new ATH has been reached yesterday at 69k due to the US inflation news. Bulls have supports at the 58.4k AVWAP level, and the 49.2k AVWAP level which correlates to the upwards trendline from July. As long as the price is holding the AVWAP level of the latest push, I am not concerned about the current bull run.

Bitcoin LTF Market Structure 2021.11.11.

The Chinese Evergrande FUD resulted in a downwards move and in leverage liquidations, causing an agressive price decline yesterday night. The 65.2k AVWAP level has been smashed, but the 62.2k AVWAP level and the prior downtrend have not been tackled. Stochastic RSI is now in the oversold region, providing long momentum. To maintain short term bullish momentum, the price needs to confidently climb back above the 65.5k AVWAP level.

Predator Charts

Bitcoin 3-day Predator 2021.11.11.

The HTF 3-day Predator chart is still bullish, on its way to giving us a new green candle close. Price is confidently above the ascending 20-period moving average.

Bitcoin 1-day Predator 2021.11.11.

The daily Bitcoin Predator chart is neutral. The indicator is still bearish but the price is above the ascending 20-period moving average, which nicely held the price in the late night leverage liquidations.

Bitcoin 8-hour Predator 2021.11.11.

The LTF Predator chart is neutral. Indicator is slighly bearish and the price is sitting on the 20-period moving average as support. No need to say that bulls do not want to lose the 20MA line on this chart.

Summary

Bitcoin made a new all time high yesterday on the high US inflation news, and this has been closely followed by a new round of FUD due to the Chinese Evergrande story. The downmove during the night resulted in leveraged long liquidations, and have reset funding rates on derivative exchanges. Some aggressively leveraging “investors” again have some time to think whether they should play markets or casino… The high time frame Bitcoin market structure is bullish with targets of 72k and 81k and support levels at 58.4k and 49.2k. In the low timeframe the 62.2k level is acting as both AVWAP and daily 20MA support. As the LTF stochastic RSI is reset as oversold, my bets are on upwards continuation.

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What is trend trading?

Trend trading is a market strategy that is reasonably different from swing trading or day-trading. A market “trend” is a tendency of a financial market price to move in a particular direction over time. Swing traders and day-traders are usually trying to pinpoint low-term market tops and bottoms, and take aggressive positions expecting to profit from a swift change of market direction. Trend traders are looking for consolidated and strong directions on a given market, and are trying to ride the trend for as long as possible. These traders normally enter in the market after the trend “properly” establishes itself. My core strategy in trend trading is to look for a market setup where the 3-day chart is indicating a solid trend, and is supported properly by the 1-day and the 8-hour charts.

What is the indicator coloring my chart candles?

I am using the Predator indicator from Decentrader as my core trading tool, that is coloring my candles green-red-turquoise-orange, and is providing me basic information on the trend. I am also using the 20-period moving average and Fibonacci levels for the identification of supports and resistances.

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Join the discussion!

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Disclaimer

The present article is a free material, for entertainment and educational purposes. Nothing in this post shall be considered as financial advice, you shall never make any financial decisions or financial investments based on a singly source of information and without doing your own research.

Trading and hodling bitcoin since 2015 I Focusing on longterm trends I No alpha for daytrades