Bitcoin Chartpunk Daily Alpha #40

Join me on the journey to a 250k+ Bitcoin price! We will definitely have some good and bad times on this bumpy road, but with good alpha we will be able to ride strong trends and avoid sharp losses. Being a trend trader, I am not promising to pinpoint exact highs and lows, but I hope my view will assist you in making your own decisions.

Market Structure

The high timeframe Bitcoin chart is bullish. The price is confidently staying above the 57.5k level of the VWAP anchored to the latest push of September 29, indicating this current uptrend staying intact. The price however should more confidently tackle the 61.8k level of the VWAP anchored to the pullback from October 20 in order to invalidate that downward trend. In case of solid price action above 62k, targets to the north are 66–67k and then 72k. To the south the level of 57.5k is a solid support which aligns with both the AVWAP level of the uptrend and the monthly Fibonacci pivot level.

With the latest swing high and the retest, we can assume that the downwards trend from October 20 is behind us. This would however require solid price action above 62k in order to stay above the VWAP level anchored to the October 20 swing high. The uptrend on the chart has remained intact with consistent higher lows being printed. LTF targets to the north are 63.2k, 64.7k and then 67k. The weekly Fibonacci pivot level of 60.8k has proved as support in line with my yesterday’s view. If 60.8k would break down, then a move to the 58k support area would be in play.

Predator Charts

The HTF Predator chart is bullish. The indicator is ready to print a new green candle close, and the price is above the ascending 20-period moving average level.

The daily Predator chart is still neutral. Indicator is bearish but the 20-period moving average is still ascending, and the price is fighting to stay above its level. The fall of the 20-period moving average and the start of its descend would be a problem here for the bulls.

The LTF Predator chart is neutral. The indicator is not showing consistent trend and the 20-period moving average is also undecided, probably a bit ascending. Strong price action above 63k is needed here for the bulls.

Summary

The long timeframe market structure is bullish, which makes us expect an upwards move from the current consolidation period. Bulls would want to see strong moves above 63k, and green Predator charts on all three timeframes. In case of solid price action above 62–63k, price could move to 66–67k and then to 72k. I do not expect a pullback which would take Bitcoin under 58k.

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What is trend trading?

Trend trading is a market strategy that is reasonably different from swing trading or day-trading. A market “trend” is a tendency of a financial market price to move in a particular direction over time. Swing traders and day-traders are usually trying to pinpoint low-term market tops and bottoms, and take aggressive positions expecting to profit from a swift change of market direction. Trend traders are looking for consolidated and strong directions on a given market, and are trying to ride the trend for as long as possible. These traders normally enter in the market after the trend “properly” establishes itself. My core strategy in trend trading is to look for a market setup where the 3-day chart is indicating a solid trend, and is supported properly by the 1-day and the 8-hour charts.

What is the indicator coloring my chart candles?

I am using the Predator indicator from Decentrader as my core trading tool, that is coloring my candles green-red-turquoise-orange, and is providing me basic information on the trend. I am also using the 20-period moving average and Fibonacci levels for the identification of supports and resistances.

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Join the discussion!

My goal with this article to share a unique perspective on certain topics. I’d love to hear your thoughts or questions, so feel free to comment them below. Have a great day everyone!

Disclaimer

The present article is a free material, for entertainment and educational purposes. Nothing in this post shall be considered as financial advice, you shall never make any financial decisions or financial investments based on a singly source of information and without doing your own research.

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Chartpunk

Trading and hodling bitcoin since 2015 I Focusing on longterm trends I No alpha for daytrades