Bitcoin Chartpunk Daily Alpha #32

Join me on the journey to a 250k+ Bitcoin price! We will definitely have some good and bad times on this bumpy road, but with good alpha we will be able to ride strong trends and avoid sharp losses. Being a trend trader, I am not promising to pinpoint exact highs and lows, but I hope my view will assist you in making your own decisions.

Market Structure

Bitcoin Market Structure 2021.10.28.

Bitcoin is still in a long term bull market, the uptrend started on July 20 is intact. The short term uptrend started on September 29 is broken, and the price has been correcting downwards since the ATH breach of last week. The bottom support level of the consolidation zone of the previous days at 59500 has been lost yesterday, and seems to have become resistance for now. The upper level of the pre-ATH consolidation zone at 57500 should serve as support for now, if that falls, then the price may continue to the 53.5k level whicj is a very strong support. Stochastic RSI on the daily chart has been clearly oversold for days now, which is usually sign of upwards momentum.

3-Day Bitcoin Predator Chart

Bitcoin 3-day 2021.10.28.

The 3-day Bitcoin chart is still bullish. Predator indicator has given us a new green close, and the price is above the ascending 20-period moving average. The long term upwards momentum is supported by this HTF chart.

1-Day Bitcoin Predator Chart

Bitcoin 1-day 2021.10.28.

The 1-day chart does not look very good for the bulls, but it still has hope. Yesterday’s losing of the 20-period moving average is a very bad momentum. Predator has been printing red candles for days now. The only hope here for the bulls is that the 20-period moving average is still ascending. The price should strongly stay above 60k in order to save this timeframe from becoming bearish.

8-Hour Bitcoin Predator Chart

Bitcoin 8-hour 2021.10.28.

As I have mentioned for almost a week now, our LTF 8H chart has been flat-out bearish. Predator has been printing red candle closes, and the price is below the descending 20-period moving average line. There is nothing bullish about this chart.

Summary

Due to the bearish momentum that has been building up during the previous week, Bitcoin has lost a key support of 60k yesterday. The move was the result of leveraged long liquidations, which is rather obvious from this chart:

Liquidation of leveraged FOMO longs

The price fell almost 2k within ten minutes. As the downward move started just under 60k, it is clear that stops and liquidations have been the core motive. Leveraged 5x-10x FOMO longs from the ATH zone of 65–67k are the reason for this fall in my opinion.

Bitcoin 1-hour 2021.10.28.

Due to the fact that the long term upwards momentum is intact and the daily stochastic RSI is oversold, I expecting an upwards move at least to the 62k level soon, which level is where the new descending short-term downward trendline is located. The reclaim of the 59.5 level should be very important for the bulls, at least to return into the previous consolidation zone of 59.5k-63k. In case of further downwards move, and the loss of the 57500 level, we may get back into the 53.5k-57.5k consolidation zone. The loss of 53k would by a strong exit signal from my longterm holdings, as it would mean the loss of the 20MA on the 3D chart and the Fibonacci support as well.

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What is trend trading?

Trend trading is a market strategy that is reasonably different from swing trading or day-trading. A market “trend” is a tendency of a financial market price to move in a particular direction over time. Swing traders and day-traders are usually trying to pinpoint low-term market tops and bottoms, and take aggressive positions expecting to profit from a swift change of market direction. Trend traders are looking for consolidated and strong directions on a given market, and are trying to ride the trend for as long as possible. These traders normally enter in the market after the trend “properly” establishes itself. My core strategy in trend trading is to look for a market setup where the 3-day chart is indicating a solid trend, and is supported properly by the 1-day and the 8-hour charts.

What is the indicator coloring my chart candles?

I am using the Predator indicator from Decentrader as my core trading tool, that is coloring my candles green-red-turquoise-orange, and is providing me basic information on the trend. I am also using the 20-period moving average and Fibonacci levels for the identification of supports and resistances.

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Disclaimer

The present article is a free material, for entertainment and educational purposes. Nothing in this post shall be considered as financial advice, you shall never make any financial decisions or financial investments based on a singly source of information and without doing your own research.

Trading and hodling bitcoin since 2015 I Focusing on longterm trends I No alpha for daytrades