Bitcoin Chartpunk Daily Alpha #53

Join me on the journey to a 250k+ Bitcoin price! We will definitely have some good and bad times on this bumpy road, but with good alpha we will be able to ride strong trends and avoid sharp losses. Being a trend trader, I am not promising to pinpoint exact highs and lows, but I hope my view will assist you in making your own decisions.

Market Structure

The high time frame Bitcoin chart is bullish, but the price action is closing in on ultimate support zones. The price has lost yesterday the 59000 AVWAP support of the September 29 push which is a clear sign of decreasing bullish momentum. The uptrend of July 22 has its trendline support at 52000 and its AVWAP support at 50000. This is the ultimate support zone of the uptrend, if bears break this level then the HTF bullish momentum will be lost. The stochastic RSI is oversold, this could be sign of bear exhaustion, but the lower time frames are not supporting any hopes in this regard.

The low time frame Bitcoin chart is in absolute control of the bears. The downtrend of November 10 has currently its trendline support at 64200 and its AVWAP support at 61700. The downtrend of November 15 is supported by its AVWAP level of 59800. Stochastic RSI is normal on the 1-hour chart, there is no sign of the bears getting weaker in the short term.

Predator Charts

The HTF Predator chart is flipping bearish. Following the last bearish warning candle, the indicator is on its way to print its first red candle since July. A red candle close under the 20-period moving average would be real bed news for the bulls.

The 1-day Predator chart is bearish. Indicator is red, price is under the 20-period moving average, and the MA line is descending.

The LTF 8-hour Predator chart is bearish. The indicator has been red now since November 10 and the price is in free fall since the losing of the 20-period moving average line.

Summary

The low time frame Bitcoin charts are controlled by the bears, and there is no sign of exhaustion of the selling pressure. As long as the price is not able to climb back above the downwards trendline currently at 64200, the bearish momentum will prevail. The price is closing in on the ultimate support zone currently being between 50000 and 52000. This is the final support of the bull market that has started in July.

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What is trend trading?

Trend trading is a market strategy that is reasonably different from swing trading or day-trading. A market “trend” is a tendency of a financial market price to move in a particular direction over time. Swing traders and day-traders are usually trying to pinpoint low-term market tops and bottoms, and take aggressive positions expecting to profit from a swift change of market direction. Trend traders are looking for consolidated and strong directions on a given market, and are trying to ride the trend for as long as possible. These traders normally enter in the market after the trend “properly” establishes itself. My core strategy in trend trading is to look for a market setup where the 3-day chart is indicating a solid trend, and is supported properly by the 1-day and the 8-hour charts.

What is the indicator coloring my chart candles?

I am using the Predator indicator from Decentrader as my core trading tool, that is coloring my candles green-red-turquoise-orange, and is providing me basic information on the trend. I am also using the 20-period moving average and Fibonacci levels for the identification of supports and resistances.

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Join the discussion!

My goal with this article to share a unique perspective on certain topics. I’d love to hear your thoughts or questions, so feel free to comment them below. Have a great day everyone!

Disclaimer

The present article is a free material, for entertainment and educational purposes. Nothing in this post shall be considered as financial advice, you shall never make any financial decisions or financial investments based on a singly source of information and without doing your own research.

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Chartpunk

Trading and hodling bitcoin since 2015 I Focusing on longterm trends I No alpha for daytrades